Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential candidate, has vowed to reinstate the Paris accord and lay the groundwork for a low-emissions future. China has pledged to increase its CO2 emissions by 2030, with the best efforts to reach an early peak and reach 20% non-fossil energy as a primary energy share by 2030. These commitments were included in China`s national contribution to the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change. We develop and apply a mixed method to analyze the likelihood of a current Chinese policy of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, in line with China`s commitments in Paris. We note that China is likely to increase its emissions well before 2030 and achieve its non-fossil target, which will depend on the full and effective implementation of all current policies, the success of energy sector reform and the full implementation of a national emissions trading system (ETS) for power and other important industrial sectors after 2020. Several political gaps are identified and discussed. “China will increase its planned national contributions [as part of the Paris climate agreement] through stronger measures and measures,” the Chinese president said, calling for a “green recovery” of the coronavirus pandemic. Last week, the EU also made stronger commitments under the Paris Agreement and pledged to reduce its emissions by 55% by 2030. China`s commitment to a strengthened national plan is a major boost to the prospects of next year`s important UN climate change summit. The summit called Cop26, to be organised by the United Kingdom, has been postponed for one year to November 2021. The 14th GP, which expires next year, is expected to contain new caps for coal and benchmarks for renewable energy; Its energy policy could have the greatest medium-term impact on the global energy portfolio from a single legislative document. In 2020, the government introduced an energy bill that stresses the importance of energy efficiency and renewable energy without making concrete commitments.

China`s new Emissions Trading System (ETS), which will begin in 2020, should theoretically accelerate the exit of inefficient coal-fired power plants, although the government ministry recently proposed to relax carbon intensity criteria. China also needs to update its 2030 carbon dioxide commitments to adapt short- and medium-term measures to its long-term vision. This would enhance the credibility of the carbon neutrality target and reduce costs in the long run.